May 8, 2020: It seems that India is not seeing a decreasing trend in coronavirus cases even after 40 days of strict countrywide lockdown, opposite the experience of countries such as Italy and China, therefore, COVID-19 cases are likely to hit peak in June and July, said Dr. Randeep Guleria, director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
In an interview, Dr Guleria said India needs to focus on the red zones and the hotspots. “We need to continue the lockdown for some more time with careful deliberation, considering health, economy and everything in mind,” he added. The covid-19 curve is likely to peak in June or July in India, he said, and suggested an aggressive strategy to contain coronavirus cases in hotspots and adjacent areas. Edited excerpts:
What we are seeing is that the cases are increasing at a linear pace. One of the major reasons is that we are also testing more and every day we are testing a larger number of people than before. The percentage of people testing positive is about 4-4.5%. The major problem right now is that we are not seeing a declining trend. After 40 days of stringent lockdown, which got further extended, the case count should have come down. Many other countries have recorded a downward trend in their covid-19 curve.
Coronavirus Outbreak: Highlight
- COVID-19 Cases in US Top 1.29M as Death Toll Reached 76,513.
- India COVID-19 Spike at 56, 342 as 1,986 people lost their lives.
- Coronavirus Worse For US Than Pearl Harbor, 9/11, said Donald Trump.
- COVID-19 Test Kit: China Urges India to Step up Communication to Resolve Issue.
The Minister said that currently there were 180 districts with no new cases in the past week, 180 districts with no new cases in 7-13 days, 164 districts which had not had any new cases in 14-20 days and 136 districts with no new cases since the last 21-28 days.
“States need to focus on more effective surveillance, contact tracing and early diagnosis to keep low fatality rate,” said the Minister. Surveillance for Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) / Influenza Like Illness (ILI) should be intensified in unaffected districts and districts which had not reported cases for the past 14 days.
The primary concern these days is to revisit the containment areas to ensure whether or not the strategy is being implemented as per the evolving situation.
